Exit

You can watch this video when you sign up to our new subscription service, How To +.

How To + subscribers can access more than 250 videos for free, and attend our livestream events with the world’s most exciting thinkers.

Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

Professor Philip Tetlock In Conversation With Robin Ince

57 mins watch time

Posted May 2021

Business and Professional Development, Philosophy, Psychology & Personal Development

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. But some of us do have real, demonstrable foresight, with an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average: they are the superforecasters.