Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. But some of us do have real, demonstrable foresight, with an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average: they are the superforecasters.