Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction | How To Academy

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Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

Professor Philip Tetlock In Conversation With Robin Ince

57 mins watch time

Posted May 2021


What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. But some of us do have real, demonstrable foresight, with an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average: they are the superforecasters.