Cambridge Professor and national treasure David Spiegelhalter knows that life is uncertain. How can we manage risk and ignorance – and what does it really mean, mathematically, to be lucky?

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

Cambridge statistician and beloved broadcaster David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. Now he returns to How To Academy to give us a window onto how we can all do this better.

He will take us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience.

Along the way, he will explain why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.

Tickets to this event are half price for members to How To +, and members can also watch the livestream for free.